Canadian food prices expected to increase by 4% to 6% in 2026 – faster than the overall inflation rate – according to Canada’s Food Price Report 2026

The Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 is the 16th edition of the annual research publication produced by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab in collaboration with universities across Canada. The report considers macroeconomic, geopolitical, climate, labour, and food system factors to assess anticipated food price movements.

Its objective is to provide Canadians, policymakers, and industry stakeholders with evidence-based expectations for food affordability in the coming year. The report is taken seriously by industry participants due to the accuracy of its forecasts and insightful analysis of the trends driving food prices.

For 2026, the report forecasts overall food prices in Canada will rise by 4% to 6%, reflecting continued inflationary pressure across the food system. Meat is expected to experience the largest increase, rising 5% to 7%, driven by persistent supply constraints, high production costs, and ongoing herd shortages.

Bakery products and dairy and eggs are expected to rise more moderately at 2% to 4%. Fruits, vegetables, and seafood are forecast to see smaller increases, between 1% and 5%, depending on the category.

View the complete report here: Canada’s Food Price Report 2026

Collectively, these increases could add nearly $1,000 to the annual food bill of a typical family of four, bringing total annual food expenditures to approximately $17,572.

Notably, food prices are still 27% higher than five years ago, underscoring the long-term affordability challenge facing Canadian households. A quarter of Canadian households are considered food insecure and nearly 2.2 million people visited food banks on a monthly basis in 2025.

If you’re seeking ways to retain consumers for your CPG Brand get in touch.

Canadians have never been more price and value conscious in their grocery shopping and are actively seeking opportunities to save money utilizing all methods available including switching to lower cost brands, switching product categories, switching to generic brands, using online coupons, cashback offers, loyalty programs and more.

The report has identified several key factors driving food prices in 2026, including continued trade tensions with the United States, shifts in food manufacturing and retail consolidation, labour market pressures, currency fluctuations, and climate-related disruptions.

Although some easing factors such as lower interest rates and the removal of most counter-tariffs may help limit sharper spikes, food prices remain elevated.

The 2026 outlook suggests that while food inflation may remain relatively stable compared to recent trends, it will continue to outpace broader inflation and strain household budgets. The report emphasizes that affordability concerns are unlikely to ease in the near term, particularly for protein-rich and prepared foods.

As Canada moves into 2026, the findings highlight the need for coordinated policy, industry adaptation, and consumer support to address persistent cost pressures across the national food system.

Is there an impact to CPG Brand purchasing and consumption from this continuous increase in food prices and strained Canadian consumer?

Definitely. Smart Brands should address this challenging consumer environment by executing promotional campaigns that allow consumers the opportunity to save money by demonstrating their loyalty to the Brand and its products.

These can take the form of online coupon and cashback offer campaigns or a fast and easy to execute grocery receipt validation campaign that allows a CPG Brand to remain top of mind and get closer to its consumers.

To launch a promotional campaign for your Brand and put the power of online coupons and cashback offers in support of your products get in touch.

Contact us to get started.